PJM Interconnection, the largest U.S. regional transmission organization (RTO), recorded all-time lows for various greenhouse gas emissions last year while natural gas-fired generation continued to grow as the Mid-Atlantic region’s primary power source.
PJM, the RTO managing the electric grid for 13 Mid-Atlantic states and Washington, DC, said carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2023 tumbled by 43% from 2005 levels to about 732 lbs/MWh, a record low. Nitrous oxide emissions also dropped by 90% since 2005, while sulfur dioxide emissions fell by 96% over the same period.
The drop in emissions “is the result of a decline in the use of coal, an increase in the use of natural gas, and the installation of environmental controls from 2006-2023,” according to Monitoring Analytics LLC, the independent market monitor for PJM.
In 2023, natural gas fueled about 44% of electricity production within PJM’s footprint. Gas-fired generation in the region steadily increased from 5% in 2005 as utilities retired coal-fired power plants.
“...Natural gas is driving significant air quality improvements in the power sector while also providing critical resilience to the grid. The data is clear, criteria emissions that contribute to respiratory ailments are down over 90% and carbon emissions have dropped by over 45% since 2005,” Marcellus Shale Coalition President David Callahan told NGI.
Digging Down
On a more granular level, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) similarly reported that CO2 emissions also dropped to a record low last year while natural gas-fired generation rose almost 5% from 2022.
Natural gas fueled 59% of electricity generation in Pennsylvania in 2023 versus 54.4% in 2022, according to IFO. Total power sector CO2 emissions in the state decreased to 0.29 million metric tons (mmt) per electric generation unit, down from 0.31 mmt/unit in 2022, according to IFO estimates.
Pennsylvania also is estimated to be one of the leading exporters of electricity, IFO said. It delivered 86 million MWh of energy to other states last year. That’s nearly double the 45 million MWh of electricity the second-largest exporting state, Alabama, exported in 2023, according to IFO.
PJM’s territory covers much of the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale formations in Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia. The three states also hold most of the natural gas storage facilities that utilities within PJM draw from for power production.
The “abundance and low cost for natural gas” from the Appalachian Basin has made the fuel a “favored resource for new generation,” compared to coal-fired generators, according to the RTO.
“Market-based solutions have led to these notable achievements, all of which should ensure that natural gas has a leading role in our energy future,” Callahan said.
The Appalachian Regional Avg. April bidweek price averaged $1.275/MMBtu for the Appalachian Region, according to NGI’s Bidweek Survey. That was the lowest regional average in April apart from the W. TX/SE NM Regional Avg., which was negative 6.0 cents. Production companies in West Texas’ Permian Basin have continued to ramp up production this year in light of profitable crude oil prices, even as associated gas production has left the region oversupplied.
Producers in Appalachia, on the other hand, have responded to low natural gas prices by pulling back production. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Drilling Productivity Report estimated that for the basin, May’s gas output would continue to decline by 137 MMcf/d versus April. Gas production from the region has been declining since December, according to EIA.
