The outlook for added feed gas demand in the coming months is beginning to firm, portending a possible tight supply balance next year.
Earlier in the week, Cheniere Energy Inc. asked FERC for permission to connect the first train of its Stage 3 expansion at Corpus Christi to power and gave an update of its progress to start the commissioning progress. The company will have to file separate requests for approval before being able to introduce gas to the Texas project, but the connection of power facilities is typically a sign that systems may be ready for broader testing.
In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, researchers estimated the Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 liquefied natural gas projects could help boost net exports of natural gas by 6% this year to 13.6 Bcf/d.
“Later in 2024, we expect Plaquemines LNG Phase I and Corpus Christi Stage 3 to begin LNG production and load first cargoes by the end of the year,” EIA researchers wrote. “In 2025, the developers of Golden Pass LNG plan to place the first two trains of this new three-train LNG export facility in service.”
The Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project, which would add seven trains and 10 million metric ton/year (mmty) of capacity to the existing 15 mmty facility in South Texas, is more than 50% complete and on track to produce first LNG by the end of the year, according to Cheniere.
Cheniere’s Andrew Walker, vice president for strategy, told news media at the Flame gas conference in Amsterdam earlier this week that construction was ahead of schedule. However, the company’s forecast for substantial completion of the project ranges between next summer to the middle of 2026.
In February, management told analysts that the ADCC pipeline being built jointly with Whistler Pipeline LLC to connect the Agua Dulce hub with the Corpus facility is on track to start-up in the third quarter.
Plaquemines Progress
Further East in Louisiana, Venture Global LNG Inc. introduced a small amount of gas Wednesday to the first phase of its Plaquemines LNG facility southeast of New Orleans. Earlier in the week, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Venture Global permission to flow gas to the facility’s gas gate and the second phase of its Gator Express pipeline.
Venture Global sanctioned the 13 mmty first phase of the Plaquemines LNG project in early 2022, followed by the second phase last year. Construction on the terminal and pipeline projects has been on a 24-hour schedule since the beginning of last year.
Both phases of the Plaquemines facility are expected to be fed nearly 2 Bcf/d by Gator Express, which would be connected to other major systems by extension projects.
Analysts with Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co. wrote in a recent note that progress with Corpus Christi Stage 3, Plaquemines LNG and the first trains of Golden Pass LNG in Texas could mean a tighter supply balance in the near future.
Despite a glut of production driven by the Permian Basin and mild winter weather in the Lower 48 driving down prices, several major U.S. gas producers have been trying to prepare for the eventual arrival of more LNG demand this year. However, the weakening price outlook could be inspiring some cutbacks that could create production lags for the rest of the year.
A slowdown in production now could mean “incremental power demand from the buildout of data centers” and the ramp-up of LNG demand starting in 2025 could leave the supply balance precarious in the latter half of the decade, analysts wrote.
Golden Pass Pipeline
On Tuesday, Golden Pass LNG LP told FERC it had placed a small segment of the pipeline that would feed the plant natural gas online in Calcasieu Parish, LA online. The roughly half-mile stretch of pipeline would move up to 600,000 Dth/d as far south as the Golden Triangle Storage facility in Beaumont, TX, about 30 miles north of the Golden Pass liquefaction facility.
Golden Pass also anticipates commissioning three of its compressor stations in Texas by the end of the year. The 2.4 Bcf/d capacity Golden Pass LNG project southeast of Houston is expected to become “mechanically complete” by December, before initiating first exports sometime in early 2025, according to joint venture partner ExxonMobil.
In new project news, Gulfstream LNG Development LLC has started the pre-filing process for a 237.5 Bcf/year, or 650 MMcf/d, project in Plaquemines Parish, LA. The firm told FERC it plans to file an application for approval by September with the aim of completing the project in 2030.
Gulfstream filed applications with the Department of Energy (DOE) for export permits last March, and received approval to export to free trade agreement (FTA) countries in July. The DOE is currently reviewing its policies for approving non-FTA exports, and isn’t expected to grant further permits until sometime next year.
