Australian LNG exports have ticked upward so far this year, driven in large part by higher volumes from the country’s east coast facilities.
Exports reached 21.5 million tons (Mt) through March 27, up from 20.6 Mt over the same time last year, according to Kpler. The uptick came from the Australia Pacific, Gladstone (GLNG) and Queensland Curtis liquefied natural gas facilities.
“Annual numbers show intervention in the east coast gas market last year took a toll on reserves-poor GLNG, which experienced a decline in exports from 6.1 Mt in 2022 to 5.7 Mt in 2023,” according to Australia-based consulting firm Energy Quest. East coast LNG exports operated at an average of 94% of nameplate capacity last year. Shipments were steady in 2023 at 23.3 Mt despite increased political and regulatory pressure to divert gas to the domestic market.
Rystad Energy expects overall Australian exports to hover around the 80 Mt mark through 2026 and increase to 84 Mt once the second train at Pluto LNG in Western Australia is online around 2027. However, by that year, Qatar is expected to export 92 Mt and the United States’ output should be at 132 Mt, Rystad Energy Vice President Kaushal Ramesh told NGI.
In the long term, Australia is forecast to run out of gas unless there is support for new development. Based on existing and under development supply, Rystad Energy sees the market around 90 petajoules (PJ) short on the West Coast and up to 400 PJ short on the East Coast in 2033, including LNG feed gas demand.
Without further investment, Ramesh said, East Coast producers may need to curtail LNG exports to keep the domestic market well-supplied.
“If no new supplies are developed, and there are no other solutions such as steep demand reduction or LNG import terminals, we expect this may happen around 2028 or so,” he said, adding that Eastern Australian LNG supply contracts run to 2034.
Last year, strikes and maintenance impacted export volumes. Maintenance at the North West Shelf and a major maintenance turnaround at the Prelude floating liquefaction facility in 3Q2023 ended Australia’s recent run of record LNG production.
With looming shortfalls on Australia’s east and west coast, the Australian Energy Producers (AEP) group last month requested that the government plan in the 2024-2025 budget to unblock gas supply to avoid future shortages.
With no release of new acreage for petroleum exploration since August 2022, AEP asked the government to fix the regulatory uncertainty and delays for offshore gas projects and streamline environmental approvals.
“After more than a year of policy instability, government interventions and project approval delays, a recalibration of the policy and investment environment for natural gas is needed to secure our energy future,” AEP CEO Samantha McCulloch said.
Despite regulatory and environmental hurdles, projects are moving ahead. Woodside Energy Group Ltd. is progressing with the $16.5 billion Scarborough project off the coast of Western Australia and is targeting first gas production by 2026. Santos Ltd. also is continuing with its Barossa project northwest of Darwin.
