Canadian oil and gas producers, service firms and financers predict a “moderate growth” year in 2024 as new overseas export outlets surface on the Pacific coast of British Columbia (BC), according to ATB Capital Markets Inc.
The optimism emerged in a survey held from Sept. 18 to Oct. 2 of 26 producers, 30 oilfield service operations and 29 institutional investors, said ATB, an arm of an Alberta government-owned bank.
ATB predicted its industry survey results point to corporate budgets increasing by 10% or more and added production to catch up with the new export services.
The survey results indicated that 88% of producer executives and 60% of service firms expect improved activity in the oil and gas fields, while nearly half of the firms foresee staff increases.
The survey credits the bright mood to early 2024 completion of the US$21 billion Trans Mountain Pipeline oil expansion (TMX) in early 2024, followed in the natural gas sector by LNG Canada and its Coastal GasLink (CGL) supply line.
Both projects rate as likely to support natural gas prices. TMX adds 590,000 b/d of export capacity for the oilsands, the top Canadian natural gas user for thermal processes. Stage one alone of LNG Canada would ship 14 million metric tons/year (1.8 Bcf/d).
The Canada Energy Regulator expects to hand down a decision soon on preliminary, temporary TMX startup tolls. A year of detailed expansion cost reviews has been scheduled as a result of shipper challenges against high construction expenses and shipping fees.
LNG Canada at Kitimat and CGL across northern BC are in final construction stages, with shipments expected by 2025. The project has expressed confidence in plans to double export capacity. CGL uses a pipeline capable of transporting 5 Bcf/d.
The Supreme Court of Canada, meanwhile, further encouraged the industry with an Oct. 13 verdict that the federal government violated the national constitution with its contested 2019 Impact Assessment Act (IAA), which claims exclusive project approval authority.
Before the verdict, the ATB survey found that “more than two-thirds of survey respondents identify federal energy and environmental policies and regulations as the primary concern.”
The Alberta government, which led the victory over the IAA, vowed to make federal authorities obey the Supreme Court’s directions to cooperate with provincial governments that own resources and manage development under the constitution.
Even before the court breakthrough, the industry survey results were “a testament to the sector’s resilience and adaptability, positioning it for sustainable growth as it continues to adapt,” said ATB research manager Tim Monachello.
