Global natural gas prices were stable Monday as the market weighed easing supply constraints against forecasts for hotter weather in parts of the northern hemisphere and continued geopolitical tensions.
In Europe, the Title Transfer Facility declined again, with the prompt contract giving up another 1.5% on Monday after it lost 6% last week.
Flows at Freeport LNG on the upper Texas coast were back near capacity at 2 Bcf/d last week. They were nominated at 1.96 Bcf/d on Monday, according to NGI data. That’s a reversal from downtime at the facility most of this year after freezing temperatures caused damage at the plant in January.
Flows also rebounded from Norwegian gas fields. They were nominated near normal levels of 11.4 Bcf on Monday after a stretch of maintenance, which is expected to resume next week.
TTF still remains close to $10/MMBtu and about $1 below the Japan-Korea Marker. Warmer weather is forecast across the UK, Germany and Scandinavia this week.
Meanwhile, extreme heat has gripped South and Southeast Asia in recent weeks, which has boosted spot demand and intensified competition for cargoes during the restocking season. A train at Gorgon LNG in Australia is also expected to be out until next month.
Buying activity in Asia was slow to start the week. Bangladesh, India, Thailand and Vietnam have all been in the spot market recently, but there were few open tenders on Monday. Korea Gas Corp. is seeking cargoes starting in 2028, or up to 2.1 million metric tons/year (mmty) for a 15-year term after announcing plans to strengthen long-term contracting.
In Japan, liquefied natural gas stockpiles fell by 5.6% to 2 mmty on May 5 from a week earlier, but those levels are similar to the five-year average.
Chinese companies have also been selling shipments in recent weeks in another sign that the region’s top buyers are not scrambling for LNG supplies.
The market also continues to factor conflicts in Ukraine and Israel into prices hovering near $10.
In the United States, Henry Hub continued to climb on Monday as it has for most of the month. The June contract finished 12 cents higher to close at $2.38.
Wood Mackenzie estimated U.S. natural gas production at 98.3 Bcf/d for Monday, below 101.7 Bcf/d at the same time last year. Feed gas flows to U.S. LNG terminals remained above 13 Bcf/d on Monday as they have since late last week, above more recent levels closer to 12 Bcf/d.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts over the next two weeks show warmer than normal temperatures expected for much of the United States, particularly the southeast, which should boost cooling demand and help support prices.
In other news last week, German utility EnBW AG signed an agreement to buy 0.6 million metric tons/year of LNG from Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s Ruwais LNG project for a period of 15 years. The supply deal would start in 2028, when the 9.6 mmty Ruwais project is expected to be commissioned.
In Asia, Nebula Energy’s AG&P LNG said it is starting up the 3 mmty Cai Mep LNG import terminal in Vietnam.
In Taiwan, meanwhile, the second phase expansion of the Taichung LNG import terminal is also expected to be finished this month. According to CPC Corp. the second phase could start commercial operations in July. The project consists of four phases to boost the facility’s import capacity to 13 mmty by the end of the decade.
The Guantang LNG terminal, Taiwan’s third import facility, is also expected to start operations in June 2025. That facility is ultimately planned to provide 3 mmty of capacity beginning in 2026, with about half of that scheduled to become available next year.
