The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported a withdrawal of 96 Bcf natural gas from storage for the week ended Feb. 23. The result exceeded market expectations for a pull in the high 80s Bcf and briefly boosted Nymex natural gas futures.
Ahead of the 10:30 a.m. ET government print, the April futures contract was down 2.0 cents at $1.865/MMBtu. The prompt month climbed back to around $1.898 when the EIA data was released. By around 11 a.m. ET, however, it was down 1.1 cents to $1.874.
The print fell far short of the five-year average decrease of 143 Bcf and boosted the surplus to the five-year average from 22% to 26.5%. That more than doubled the surplus from the start of the year.
“We are journeying well outside of the five-year range now,” analyst Ryan Parsons of Gelber & Associates said on the online energy platform Enelyst.
Temperatures were warmer than normal over most of the country during the latest EIA report week, “but not as exceptionally so compared to the prior few reports,” NatGasWeather said.
What’s more, the firm added, wind energy generation for the Feb. 23 report period “was nearly 20% stronger” than the prior week, when wind generation was also “quite strong.”
Prior to the report, draw estimates submitted to Reuters ranged from 77 Bcf to 95 Bcf, with a median of 88 Bcf. Bloomberg's polling produced a narrower range and a median pull expectation of 87 Bcf. NGI modeled an 84 Bcf pull.
The decrease for last week lowered inventories to 2,374 Bcf. However, stocks were well above the year-earlier level of 2,126 Bcf and the five-year average of 1,876 Bcf.
The East and Midwest regions led with draws of 52 Bcf and 31 Bcf, respectively, according to EIA. The South Central draw of 9 Bcf included a 6 Bcf pull from nonsalt facilities and a decrease of 3 Bcf in salts. Mountain region stocks decreased by 4 Bcf, while Pacific inventories were flat.
Looking ahead to the next EIA report, early estimates submitted to Reuters for the week ending March 1 ranged from withdrawals of 27 Bcf to 54 Bcf, with an average decrease of 34 Bcf. That compares with a pull of 72 Bcf a year earlier and a five-year average decrease of 93 Bcf.
